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You might as well jump before you can fall
Oct. 4th, 2008 06:34 pmI don't know how many people have been paying attention to the incestuous, parochial, annoying quagmire of Irish politics. Particularly in the third term of Fianna Fáil's government. (I know: I try to ignore them, too. Fianna Fáil, fuckups of destiny, soldiers of the brown paper envelope.)
But a few days ago, the Taoiseach, Brian Cowen (more or lessaffectionately known in the press as Biffo Cowen: Big Ignorant F**ker From Offaly) effectively shanghaied the Dáil into passing legislation which guarranteed the debts of banks incorporated in the Irish state to the tune of, apparently, about 60 billion euro per bank, or on the order of 400 billion euro overall.
(This will benefit the bankers and the developers, for 60% of all loans are in property and development, and some of the developers deep in hock? Will not be able to avoid going bust, now that this over-inflated housing bubble has finally burst.)
(Of course, we will not speak of unscrupulous lending to personal borrowers: the 100% mortgage, the - in effect - 120% mortgage.)
Banks taking advantage of the guarrantee will be charged for the privilege, etc, yadda-yadda compliance with competitive measure European schtick. But - and this is the interesting part -
By guarranteeing the banks, Cowen (and the Tánaiste, Brian Lenihan) are operating outside European regulatory agreements: what they're doing is - to all intents and purposes - not really allowed under agreements ratified by the European Union. Ireland - and now Greece, who have passed a similar measure - are going it alone, while the European Central Bank and the EU Council of Ministers, the Commission, the Parliament, sit around and talk a good fight.
This, just months after Cowen and Lenihan themselves tried to bully a tired and disillusioned electorate into believing that we had to pass the Lisbon Treaty. That without a Lisbon-Treaty-ified Europe, we're doomed to isolation, economic backwardness, blah blah scaremongering blah.
Well, would you look at that. For all their deification of Europe, what happens when push comes to crunch?
I'll quote Dr Bruce Arnold, OBE, writing in this Saturday's "Irish Independent":
"'Where was Europe?' And where was the passionate espousal of European Union membership that so captivated elected representatives a few brief months ago when they were telling voters of the huge importance of greater closeness to the EU and the dire risks of Ireland going it alone.
"Faced by the biggest financial crisis in our history, we did just that. We went it alone. And even if other things turn out to be defective, with too many burdens on the State and too few on the banks, which is the growing fear, at least the nonsense of depending on Europe has been exposed yet again.
"The move we made was unilateral and illegal. It has now been copied by Greece under similar pressures. And it looks as though it will create an unstoppable stampede across Europe: either for an EU-wide bailout of the financial system, or for it to happen unilaterally, country by country."
He also says: "The 'No' voters were right. Europe wants more and more power but knows less and less how to use it. The sudden flight into unilateral nationalism by people who told us that closer union with Europe was an inescapable requirement has made more difficult any attempt to revisit Lisbon. Those who oppose greater integration will be strengthened by the EU adding another failure to its lengthening list."
"This banker's solution to a banker's problem", 04-10-08
So what's up with that, then?
Simply put, the EU is a mess.
Don't get me wrong: I approve of the absence of trade barriers and the absence of barriers to the movement of people. I even approve of shared environmental and social goals, agreed to by treaty. I approve of pan-European investigative co-operation on trans-national crime, of ease of extradition arrangements, and of the European fund for economic development, by which - one is assured - those nations with more cash help fund infrastructure development in those with less.
But. The powers that be of the EU have moved for powers that will allow them to, in effect, govern a federation of nations. And what do they do in a crisis that requires a firmer response than Ah. Er. We'll convene a working group and get back to you next year?
...Well, not all that damn much, actually.
ETA: This is what they've done. A day late, and with Sarko (I do not believe I am alone in finding him an arrogant bully, am I?) very much to the fore.
And it looks from here like they're accepting their effective loss of control to national governments in this matter. Without, of course, saying as much.
Of course, I'm merely a private citizen. Quite possibly I do not understand the full thought of the arcane masters of European finance wizardry and bureaucratic sorcery. */snark*
#
And for all those who have said and are saying that they just couldn't see this coming, nother very interesting piece of analysis, provided by a man who's had his byline erased in the online edition - if I remember from the print edition, it's John Drennan, but I'm in no wise sure - is this article: "Please don't pretend you didn't see this one coming", 04-10-08. In which he says:
"I recall a speech made in Dublin 20 years or so ago by Sir Kenneth Cork, who was then the leading British expert on insolvency.
"The British and Irish governments of the time had both brought in bankruptcy protection legislation. Cork said that the British legislation was bad; and the Irish legislation was worse. It left an insolvent company in the hands of the management that had brought it to its knees in the first place."
And off the topic of politics:
A guy just rang the doorbell and introduced himself as a monk from Co. Fermanagh. He wanted to show me, or give me, or sell me - I'm not quite sure - what he called an "amazing book". The title? 'The Teachings of Queen [probably unpronounceable and certainly unspellable vaguely-Indian-sounding name]'. Uh-huh. No thanks, man. And no way are you from Fermanagh with that Middle England half-swallowed half-aspirated ungk-sound in your consonants.
That was fairly weird. I'm not used to monks in pink skirty robes.
And, man? In this country when you say monk most people think Catholic. So way to go on the subversion there, because I'm fairly sure your type of monk is a recently introduced species.
To round off the post, some good news:
Defence minister hopeful of Asgard II salvage".
Come on, lads. Get her up off that seabed. She deserves better than to be left there to rot.
But a few days ago, the Taoiseach, Brian Cowen (more or less
(This will benefit the bankers and the developers, for 60% of all loans are in property and development, and some of the developers deep in hock? Will not be able to avoid going bust, now that this over-inflated housing bubble has finally burst.)
(Of course, we will not speak of unscrupulous lending to personal borrowers: the 100% mortgage, the - in effect - 120% mortgage.)
Banks taking advantage of the guarrantee will be charged for the privilege, etc, yadda-yadda compliance with competitive measure European schtick. But - and this is the interesting part -
By guarranteeing the banks, Cowen (and the Tánaiste, Brian Lenihan) are operating outside European regulatory agreements: what they're doing is - to all intents and purposes - not really allowed under agreements ratified by the European Union. Ireland - and now Greece, who have passed a similar measure - are going it alone, while the European Central Bank and the EU Council of Ministers, the Commission, the Parliament, sit around and talk a good fight.
This, just months after Cowen and Lenihan themselves tried to bully a tired and disillusioned electorate into believing that we had to pass the Lisbon Treaty. That without a Lisbon-Treaty-ified Europe, we're doomed to isolation, economic backwardness, blah blah scaremongering blah.
Well, would you look at that. For all their deification of Europe, what happens when push comes to crunch?
I'll quote Dr Bruce Arnold, OBE, writing in this Saturday's "Irish Independent":
"'Where was Europe?' And where was the passionate espousal of European Union membership that so captivated elected representatives a few brief months ago when they were telling voters of the huge importance of greater closeness to the EU and the dire risks of Ireland going it alone.
"Faced by the biggest financial crisis in our history, we did just that. We went it alone. And even if other things turn out to be defective, with too many burdens on the State and too few on the banks, which is the growing fear, at least the nonsense of depending on Europe has been exposed yet again.
"The move we made was unilateral and illegal. It has now been copied by Greece under similar pressures. And it looks as though it will create an unstoppable stampede across Europe: either for an EU-wide bailout of the financial system, or for it to happen unilaterally, country by country."
He also says: "The 'No' voters were right. Europe wants more and more power but knows less and less how to use it. The sudden flight into unilateral nationalism by people who told us that closer union with Europe was an inescapable requirement has made more difficult any attempt to revisit Lisbon. Those who oppose greater integration will be strengthened by the EU adding another failure to its lengthening list."
"This banker's solution to a banker's problem", 04-10-08
So what's up with that, then?
Simply put, the EU is a mess.
Don't get me wrong: I approve of the absence of trade barriers and the absence of barriers to the movement of people. I even approve of shared environmental and social goals, agreed to by treaty. I approve of pan-European investigative co-operation on trans-national crime, of ease of extradition arrangements, and of the European fund for economic development, by which - one is assured - those nations with more cash help fund infrastructure development in those with less.
But. The powers that be of the EU have moved for powers that will allow them to, in effect, govern a federation of nations. And what do they do in a crisis that requires a firmer response than Ah. Er. We'll convene a working group and get back to you next year?
...Well, not all that damn much, actually.
ETA: This is what they've done. A day late, and with Sarko (I do not believe I am alone in finding him an arrogant bully, am I?) very much to the fore.
And it looks from here like they're accepting their effective loss of control to national governments in this matter. Without, of course, saying as much.
Of course, I'm merely a private citizen. Quite possibly I do not understand the full thought of the arcane masters of European finance wizardry and bureaucratic sorcery. */snark*
#
And for all those who have said and are saying that they just couldn't see this coming, nother very interesting piece of analysis, provided by a man who's had his byline erased in the online edition - if I remember from the print edition, it's John Drennan, but I'm in no wise sure - is this article: "Please don't pretend you didn't see this one coming", 04-10-08. In which he says:
"I recall a speech made in Dublin 20 years or so ago by Sir Kenneth Cork, who was then the leading British expert on insolvency.
"The British and Irish governments of the time had both brought in bankruptcy protection legislation. Cork said that the British legislation was bad; and the Irish legislation was worse. It left an insolvent company in the hands of the management that had brought it to its knees in the first place."
And off the topic of politics:
A guy just rang the doorbell and introduced himself as a monk from Co. Fermanagh. He wanted to show me, or give me, or sell me - I'm not quite sure - what he called an "amazing book". The title? 'The Teachings of Queen [probably unpronounceable and certainly unspellable vaguely-Indian-sounding name]'. Uh-huh. No thanks, man. And no way are you from Fermanagh with that Middle England half-swallowed half-aspirated ungk-sound in your consonants.
That was fairly weird. I'm not used to monks in pink skirty robes.
And, man? In this country when you say monk most people think Catholic. So way to go on the subversion there, because I'm fairly sure your type of monk is a recently introduced species.
To round off the post, some good news:
Defence minister hopeful of Asgard II salvage".
Come on, lads. Get her up off that seabed. She deserves better than to be left there to rot.
